"The main open question is: will Electric Cars' adoption rate be correlated with Washing Machines' one or will it enjoy more explosive growth like Mobiles with rate of acceleration like iPods on the chart below? First, we will strike brutally and cynically (the way the Wall Street works): how can you compare washing machines and Cars? Even Electric ones? Cars are all about men, their personal social security space with a statement. How many of us discussed washing machines even the best ones? Brutal history about washing machines is that it was for the "best part" - to make her life better, it was not about status and not about statement - so it took 80 years to get to the 80% adoption rate. On a more serious note time has changed: it will not be about him all the time this time and it is not about U.S. only this time, but first back to iPod Moment."
We have another reason to believe that growth in Electric Cars penetration rate could be explosive: in all estimates government policy is crucial combined with lithium battery cost for mass adoption of EVs within next ten years.DetNews.com:
Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf buyers in select cities would get $10K incentive under Senate plan
David Shepardson / The Detroit News
Washington -- Buyers of the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf would be eligible for a $10,000 federal tax credit in some cities under a $10 billion Senate plan to boost electric vehicles.
House and Senate members on Thursday released similar plans intended to make electric vehicles more than niche models.
The House version would spend $6.6 billion, dedicating $800 million to five "deployment communities" to speed 700,000 plug-in vehicles into use and establish recharging networks. A Senate version would spend about $10 billion and grant $250 million to up to 15 communities.
The Senate version would extend the current $7,500 tax credit for 200,000 plug-in vehicles per manufacturer to 300,000. And it would boost the credit to $10,000 in those 15 communities.
That would further reduce the cost of the Volt, which will get up to 40 miles on a charge, and the fully electric Nissan Leaf, which will get up to 100 miles.
General Motors spokesman Greg Martin praised the bills.
"We appreciate Congress' foresight and interest in electric vehicles," he said. "With the Chevrolet Volt just months away from the showroom, we believe the timing is right to start working on policies that can accelerate early consumer adoption of advanced electric vehicle technologies."
Electric vehicles enjoy widespread support across the political spectrum.
"Republicans and Democrats agree that electrifying our cars and trucks is the single best way to reduce our dependence on oil," said Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., one of the sponsors.
Both bills would set aside billions more for research into batteries, research and tax credits.
The Senate bill also would create a $10 million prize for the first manufacturer of a battery that can get 500 miles on a charge.
Congressional aides have spent several months writing the bills. Members cited the recent Gulf oil spill as a factor in the urgent need to shift vehicles from oil to electric power.
Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., noted that the United States has 2 percent of the world's oil reserves but consumes 25 percent of the world's oil.
"This isn't a question of if, but when," Markey said, adding the bill would speed up the widespread use of electric vehicles. "It will drive the creation of jobs, domestic manufacturing and homegrown innovation."
The Senate bill would require that one of the 15 deployment communities be a rural area of fewer than 125,000 people and would "reflect diverse populations" and geography.
The Senate bill sets aside another $2 billion for grants and cost sharing -- local communities would have to provide 20 percent of the funding.
Communities and their business and utility partners would have to apply for inclusion.
From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20100528/AUTO01/5280349/1148/rss25#ixzz0pDCtrQjP"
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